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- ItemA Dynamic Model to Forecast and Evaluate Changes and Trends in the Global Market for Fertilizers(2011-05) Marcien NibasumbaFertilizers, improved seed and modernized crop management practices have contributed substantially to increases in agricultural productivity in recent decades, while helping to conserve ever-shrinking land resources and water supplies. Fertilizers will continue to play a key role in expanding agricultural productivity to meet the ever-increasing world demand for food, feed and bio-fuels. Forecasts of the trends that drive the rapidly expanding demand for these agricultural products and the associated supply of crop nutrients are critical for sound decision-making on a wide range of policy issues. Such trend forecasts are crucial to improving strategic planning and resource allocation; prioritizing investments in fertilizer production/supply expansion (based on expected impacts and risks); and reducing risks associated with the development of government policy and public/private sector investment. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the capability of FertTrade, a fertilizer trade model/algorithm created by IFDC as an analytical tool to address questions about development of the fertilizer and agricultural sectors around the world. Fert Trade estimates trends in the demand, production, supply and trade of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) fertilizer nutrients through 2025. FertTrade also assesses "what if" scenarios to evaluate changes in national variables such as populations, incomes, crop areas and yields. Fert Trade is a tool that can be used to help understand the nature and concept of derived fertilizer demand and the variables that are primary reasons for changes in that demand. The following factors are taken into account in the FertTrade modeling process: 1. Nature of Fertilizer Demand. 2. Climate Change. 3. Population and Income Growth. 4. Demand for Bio-Fuels. 5. Fertilizer and Food Prices. 6. Improvements in Technology. Fert Trade's analytics can be used to evaluate scenarios of changing demographic, economic, technological and agro-climatic circumstances that affect agricultural production and the global demand, production and trade of the major fertilizer nutrients (N, P and K). For demonstration purposes, Fert Trade was used to estimate and evaluate trends in the demand, production and trade of these fertilizer nutrients globally on the basis of estimates aggregated for the world as a whole, regionally and sub-regionally. Crop production outputs produced as simulation outcomes were used to estimate quantities of derived demand for the nutrients in each of the nations/sub-regions. The model included five major components: 1. Scenario design. 2. Estimation of crop production outputs by a commodity market model. 3. Estimation of the derived demand for the three fertilizer nutrients 4. Projections of production capacities and supplies of N, P and K. 5. Estimation of volumes and patterns of trade for N, P and K. Trend modeling and projections of demand/supply of world fertilizer nutrients through 2025 are also vital compo- nents of Fert Trade. Trends in key countries, regions and sub-regions are also addressed. Results of national/sub- regional analyses of demand and supply projections for N, P and K nutrients in 2005, 2015 and 2025 will be detailed and summarized in this paper. Highlights of these trends include: 1. Exponential rates of growth of demand for N, P and K. 2. Projected fertilizer demand growth rates during 2005-2025 3. Increases in the demand and consumption of N, P and K fertilizers 4. Increases in the production and supply of N, P and K fertilizers 5. The supply-demand balance and trade of N, Pand K fertilizers Currently, FertTrade is a useful tool for policy change and reclusology development decisions that she fertilizer performance and agriculture sectors globally, regionally and nationally in this context, the codel can be used to evaluate ex-ante changes induced by policies or technology innovations that affect these sectors using "what if scenarios. Thus, FertTrade can be used to assess such changes in teos of impacts an agricultural production productivity and the demand, supply and trade of fertilizers. A "what if scenario was designed to assess the primary economic and enviniamental impacts of cuccessfully increasing fertilizer N use efficiency in cereal production from 40 percent to 60 percent. Then, the potential emo feasibility for society as a whole to invest in such technology was assessed. Subjects of the evaluation include 1. The efficiency of fertilizer N applied to crops. 2. The context for assessment of impact of increased N-efficiency in cereal production 3. Impact on consumption of fertilizer N. 4. Impact on losses of fertilizer N to the environment 5. Economic impact in developing countries. 6. Impact on the environment. Results will show that even if investments in this effort are substantial (175 $4 billion during five years), res on investment will justify such investments-if the N use efficiency goals are reached and the projected levels of adoption by cereal farmers are achieved within the proposed time horizon of 10-15 years. Fert Trade currently is utilized for analyses and evaluation of issues and evolving circumstances that affect fertil izer sectors and agricultural production and development globally, regionally and nationally. However, Feride's capabilities and applications can be significantly expanded through additional model development and refinement. For example, by expanding its capability to derive estimates of, and pollution associated with, livestock and emp production (as well as fertilizer production and use), environmental impacts could be estimated and assessed Sub- quently, FertTrade could be used to evaluate scenarios of changing circumstances in terms of potential enviromental impacts. The model's current capabilities, limitations and possibilities for further development will be described and detailed over the course of the paper.
- ItemA Seeding Program for Fertilizer Marketing(1984-12) IFDCFertilizer marketing seeding programs have been widely used in the fertilizer industry for several decades. However, there is still no standard understanding or definition of the term. This lack of clarity often leads to interchangeable terms such as seeding program, pilot program, trial marketing, marketing startup, and test marketing. To be effective, fertilizer marketing seeding programs must be properly designed and implemented, tailored to achieve specific goals. A fertilizer marketing seeding program is a planned marketing activity aimed at introducing a new product, technology, procedure, or a combination of these on a limited basis into a market. The program allows for gathering information and gaining experience to refine operational procedures before a full-scale marketing operation. It involves testing proven concepts in a new area and is usually conducted 1 to 3 years before the full-scale marketing effort. The program's limitations are based on geography and product quantity. The selected geographic area should represent the fertilizer market to be covered later. The quantity limitation refers to the product offered for sale in the program, typically a small percentage of the quantity to be sold in a full-scale marketing program.It is important to distinguish a yielding variety of crops. The key is to tailor the seeding program to the specific goals and needs of the target market. Seeding programs play a crucial role in the fertilizer industry by providing an opportunity to introduce new products, technologies, procedures, or combinations thereof in a controlled and limited manner. The information and experiences gathered during the program help refine operational procedures, adjust concepts, and gain valuable insights before implementing a full-scale marketing operation. Geographical and product quantity limitations are important considerations in designing a seeding program. The selected area should represent the target fertilizer market and be large enough to provide valid information while still being manageable. The quantity of product offered should be a percentage of what is planned for a full-scale marketing program. It is essential to distinguish a seeding program from premarket testing. Before considering its inclusion in a seeding program, premarket testing focuses on basic research activities, such as assessing product suitability, performance, and economics. The seeding program is a trial phase to validate concepts and gain further knowledge. The goals of a fertilizer seeding program can vary but generally include introducing unfamiliar fertilizers or technologies to farmers, creating brand identity and loyalty, implementing new farming practices, refining marketing systems and components, identifying constraints to fertilizer use and overcoming them, and determining institutional support required for an effective marketing system. A well-planned seeding program follows a miniaturized version of a larger fertilizer marketing plan. It comprises various components such as product and supply planning, sales planning, agronomic planning, advertising and sales promotion planning, market research planning, distribution planning, pricing planning, and personnel development planning. Each component has specific objectives and activities to achieve them, ensuring a balanced approach to product, price, place, and promotion. Planning and phasing are critical aspects of a seeding program. The timeline and activities may vary depending on the program's objectives and market context. However, a typical program spans multiple years. It involves determining objectives, selecting target areas, planning activities, training staff, arranging products and pricing policies, budgeting, monitoring procedures, and adjusting program elements based on results. To ensure the success of a seeding program, precautions must be taken to avoid common pitfalls. These include clearly defining program objectives, obtaining management approval and support, careful planning before initiation, securing necessary institutional and government support, integrating the program within a larger marketing plan, allowing sufficient time for desired results, establishing monitoring mechanisms, maintaining effective communication, and ensuring staff motivation and dedication.Effective program management is crucial for the success of a seeding program. The manager must meticulously oversee all aspects, ensuring the program is designed to overcome challenges, coordinating tasks and resources, monitoring performance, and making necessary adjustments. Consistency in management style between the seeding program and the larger marketing effort is essential for accurate comparative results.Fertilizer seeding programs are not limited to specific countries or stages of agricultural development. They can be implemented in various contexts, including developing and developed agricultural sectors. The key is to adapt the program to the specific needs and objectives of the target market, whether it involves introducing new fertilizers, technologies, or practices or refining existing marketing systems. Therefore, fertilizer seeding programs are valuable tools in the fertilizer industry for introducing new products, technologies, and practices. When properly designed and implemented, they can lead to successful market penetration and improved agricultural outcomes. However, careful planning, goal setting, program management, and evaluation are necessary to maximize the benefits of seeding programs and ensure their alignment with broader marketing strategies.
- ItemBeneficial Organisms for Nutrient Uptake(2014-01) Bindraban, Prem S.; Nina Koele; Thomas W. KuyperPhosphorus (P) availability is a major global limiting factor in crop production. The global input of mineral P fertilizer in food production is significant, but its efficiency is low, with only approximately 20% of applied P being converted into consumed P in food. Moreover, excessive application of P can lead to its accumulation in soils. As P resources are finite, maximizing their efficient use and stimulating the uptake of newly applied P fertilizers is crucial. This study investigates the hypothesis that enhancing early plant growth can improve plant P uptake, regardless of soil P levels. Experiments demonstrate that the recovery of mineral P fertilizer by crops is generally low, often less than 30%. Much of the applied fertilizer becomes bound to the soil complex, rendering it unavailable for plant uptake. Soil chemical processes produce very low P concentrations in the soil solution, whereas root concentrations are significantly higher. P deficiency in soils produces low crop yields, particularly in developing countries. To address this, the P concentration in the soil solution must be increased, or plants should possess enhanced abilities to extract P from the soil complex. Increasing P availability in soils requires substantial P application over several years, exceeding the crop's yearly uptake. Soil "loading" with P can occur unintentionally in regions with nutrient surpluses, such as areas with concentrated livestock production. These fertile soils contain excessive amounts of P compared to the crop's annual uptake. Similarly, less fertile soils have lower total P content but also lower crop off-take. In both cases, soil P reserves are abundant and could sustain agricultural production for many years if made available to the crop. This study emphasizes the importance of enhancing early plant growth to improve P uptake efficiency and utilize indigenous soil resources effectively. By increasing our understanding of plant-soil interactions and developing strategies to optimize P availability and uptake, we can enhance agricultural productivity while minimizing the environmental impact of excessive P application.
- ItemEstablishing a Viable Fertilizer Quality Detection System(2014-04) K. Perumal; J. Arunkuma; S. Ananthi; T.A. Sambanda Moorthy; B. Karthik; Bindraban, Prem S.; Upendra SinghThe proof of concept project entitled “Establishing the Viability of a Fertilizer Quality Detection System Using Alternative Analytical Technology (FAAT)” is aimed at developing a quick and robust methodology to determine the nutrient content in fertilizers. The methodology comprises the use of circular paper chromatography (CPC) and digital characterization of the corresponding chromatographic images incorporated in a database for automated assessments. One hundred (from the United States) and 22 (from India) different types of fertilizers were procured from the United States and India, and their nutrient properties were analyzed following conventional methods. These fertilizer samples were further diluted in 100 mL of 1% NaOH to obtain 3800 fertilizer concentrations. For the Indian fertilizers, 2200 samples were obtained with all 22 fertilizers by generating 100 different samples in incremental dilutions of 0.050g, up to 5 g. For the IFDC fertilizers, 1600 samples were similarly obtained from 80 of the 100 fertilizers, diluted up to 1 g. These fertilizer concentrations were analyzed using CPC. Three databases were created to serve as reference, comprising (i) the Indian fertilizer database with 1500 reference fertilizer sample images, (ii) the IFDC database with 563 samples and (iii) a combined database of 2063 samples. Finally, an unknown fertilizer chromatographic image from unknown fertilizer sample types was used for testing the accuracy of the methodology by comparing the chromatographic images with the images contained in the reference databases. Out of the 25 test samples from IFDC, 21 reported similarity between AAT methodology and conventional analytical methods for nutrient content determination, and hence on quality, implying that 84% were mimicked correctly. Out of the 18 fertilizers from India, 11 tested correctly when using the database with 1500 references, representing about 61% accuracy of retrieving the correct fertilizer type and quality. The consolidated database containing both IFDC and Indian fertilizer (2063) was tested and recorded 34 out of 43 test samples that were similar between the FAAT system and conventional analytical methods, indicating about 70% accuracy. The existing AAT software was fine-tuned and integrated as unique stand-alone software for the FAAT system and used for fertilizer testing. An investigation was also carried with two types of fertilizers: urea and single superphosphate (SSP), and deliberately adulterating them with low grade inputs. The urea fertilizer was adulterated with ammonium sulfate (AS) and single superphosphate in the ratios of 1:0, 1:1, 1:3 and 3:1. The adulterated fertilizers were blended using mortar and pestle and 0.500g and 1.000 g were taken for CPC image development. Both the urea fertilizer and SSP were adulterated with AS and gypsum and tested on the FAAT system based on CPC images. The adulterated samples were retrieved from the data base and indicated 100% and 71% accuracy, respectively. Our study shows that with further refinement, the use of AAT methodology for testing fertilizer nutrient content and the presence of contaminants, and hence quality of the fertilizer, is a promising technology.
- ItemFertilizer Subsidies in Developing Countries(1984-12)The purpose of a fertilizer subsidy in most countries is to encourage the farmer to use more fertilizer, thereby increasing agricultural production. In Indonesia, the fertilizer subsidy has been used as an important input in programs to attain self-sufficiency in producing rice and other food crops. Due to these programs, fertilizer consumption in Indonesia has increased at an annual rate of 16% during the past 15 years. In Burkina Faso, fertilizers were subsidized as a short-term measure, primarily for cotton, but the subsidies were continued because of large food deficits. Argentina is using fertilizers to increase foreign exchange earnings by producing more grain. In the Ivory Coast, fertilizer is subsidized to increase cotton production, the major cash crop, and to reduce rice imports, which have increased as the population has migrated to the cities. In Gambia, groundnut production is the major source of foreign exchange earnings, and fertilizers have been subsidized to promote groundnut production. In Colombia, fertilizer is subsidized to promote exports by encouraging farmers to use modern coffee varieties. The subsidy influences coffee production, and the percentage of the subsidized fertilizer depends on the country's coffee stocks and the world supply /demand situation. In Zambia, subsidies have been used to reduce food imports and improve the standard of living. How Subsidies are Set Many countries set the fertilizer price by using the subsidy mechanism. Several countries, including India, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Nepal, the Philippines, Turkey, and Venezuela, also set crop prices. Chile, which has no subsidy, sets minimum crop prices related to international market prices. There does not seem to be a fixed fertilizer: crop price ratio that countries try to achieve in setting the fertilizer subsidy or crop and fertilizer price relationships. The levels of crop and fertilizer prices are generally political decisions made at high levels of government and based on the country's finances and present food situation, as well as its goals and trade policies. Countries try to set crop: fertilizer price relationships to encourage fertilizer use. In Sierra Leone, fertilizer prices are set by a cabinet decision. In Zambia, recommendations are made by the National Agricultural Marketing Board in conjunction with the Department of Agriculture and approved by the Cabinet. Indonesia tries to set crop and fertilizer prices to achieve a ratio of 2. 0. In India, price subsidies are used on grain sales through government-controlled fair price shops. In Turkey, wheat is the major food crop. The wheat: 1 fertilizer price ratio is set to encourage wheat farmers to use fertilizer. Other prices are set about that of wheat. In most countries, the subsidy is set for 1 year. In Colombia, the government sets the fertilizer price every 3 months to reflect changes in inflation or currency devaluations. The fertilizer subsidy in Colombia is changed whenever the fertilizer price is changed. Prices in Sierra Leone changed twice in 1984. Fertilizer prices in Indonesia remained constant from 1977 to November 1982 and have not changed. In India, fertilizer prices have been in effect since June 1983. This is usually done annually in countries such as India, where the government sets crop prices. In Colombia, minimum crop prices are changed twice per year. Prices are usually set immediately preceding the cropping season. However, in Venezuela, prices for many crops have been in effect since 1980. Prices of maize were set in 1981 and those of rice in 1982. Amount of Subsidy Burkina Faso subsidizes about 40% of the actual fertilizer cost, but this amount is being reduced yearly. The new subsidy in Venezuela includes a reduction of 50% in the selling price of each fertilizer product and an additional adjustment according to the new exchange rate for imported raw materials. Before being abolished in Saudi Arabia, the fertilizer subsidy was set at 50% of the ex-factory or the c. i. f. import price. When the subsidy was in effect in the Philippines, urea was subsidized at about 30% of the selling price. The subsidy for locally produced compounds such as 14-14-14 was about twice the rate of the subsidy on imported products. In Gambia, 61% of the urea price, 62% of the diammonium phosphate (DAP) price, and 96% of the single superphosphate (SSP) price are subsidized. In Sri Lanka, urea receives a subsidy of 56%, while mono ammonium phosphate (MOP) receives a subsidy of only 33%. In Zambia, where urea is imported, it receives less than a 1% subsidy, while ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate receive 25% subsidies. Sri Lanka once paid the subsidy as a percentage of the c. i. f. import price. Today, however, fixed sums are allocated for the different fertilizers. Approximately 70% of the total Government expenditure is spent on urea. Ammonium sulfate (AS) is not subsidized because it is the policy of the· Government to encourage urea usage because of its high nitrogen content and local urea manufacturing facilities. In Colombia, the price of natural gas used as a fertilizer feedstock is set at 60% of the price charged for industrial use. In India, natural gas is sold by the GovernmentGovernment to the fertilizer industry at lower prices than to other consumers. However, this rate is still higher than that paid by fertilizer manufacturers in other countries. The producer in India is subsidized to cover high gas costs, high customs and excise duties, and high capital 2 costs required to build the infrastructure provided by the GovernmentGovernment of some countries. The subsidy is administered at the manufacturer level. In Zambia, the government-controlled producer is given grants to purchase raw materials. In Indonesia, the fertilizer price to the farmer is fixed, and the subsidy becomes the difference between this price and the actual costs of P. T. Pupuk Sriwidjaja, the company responsible for fertilizer distribution. Coverage In most countries, the fertilizer price is the same for small and large farmers and all crops. In India, some states offer 25% and 33.3% additional subsidies to small and marginal farmers, respectively. The transport of fertilizer over difficult terrain receives an additional subsidy. In Nepal, high transportation costs, as well as the price of fertilizer, are subsidized. In Saudi Arabia, when the subsidy was in effect, farm-gate prices varied from area to area depending on the distance that fertilizer was transported. In Colombia, fertilizer is only subsidized for coffee. In Burkina Faso, when fertilizer was used only for cotton, the subsidy cost was financed from cotton exports. In the Ivory Coast, fertilizer made locally by the Societe Ivoirienne d'Engrais (SIVENG) is subsidized for all buyers; in addition, the remaining costs are paid for cotton and irrigated rice growers by the advisory companies and indirectly by the GovernmentGovernment. These costs include storage and transport. At one time, the Philippines had a different subsidy for priority crops such as rice, feed grains, and vegetables than cash crops. However, the system was abandoned because of the diversion of fertilizer from one crop to another. At one time in Sri Lanka, the same product was sold at different prices for use on different crops. However, Sri Lanka's experience was similar to the Philippines, and the policy was discontinued. Even though the subsidies are the same for the same product on all crops, approximately 63% of the total subsidy expenditure goes for rice because of the area grown and because urea and triple superphosphate (TSP), the major products used, are highly subsidized. Tea benefits are minimal from the subsidy because AS and local phosphate rock are used--neither of which is subsidized. In Indonesia, the fertilizer price paid by the farmer is the same for all fertilizer products. Total cost In most countries, it is difficult to calculate the total cost of the subsidy. In some countries, such as India, warehousing, credit, transportation, and raw materials, as well as the price of fertilizer, are subsidized. In other countries such as Sierra Leone, Government employees sell fertilizer, which constitutes a subsidy to the extent that these costs are not reflected in the farmers' fertilizer price. Some countries, such as Argentina, offer tax concessions that have the same effect as a subsidy. In Chile, 3 fertilizer is not directly subsidized; low-cost credit programs are indirectly subsidized. In Zambia, the government pays for domestic transportation and storage. The fertilizer subsidy in many countries constitutes 2%-8% of the total agricultural budget,· but in some countries, it is much higher. During the past 4 years, the fertilizer subsidy in Turkey has been equivalent to 74%-94% of the total agricultural budget and represents 4%-5% of the total Government budget. In Sri Lanka, the subsidy represents about 2% of the total Government budget. A Rs 1 000 million allocation has remained constant since 1981 and may continue for the next few years. Thus, each year's subsidy declines in importance with inflation and the larger Government budget. In Colombia, the fertilizer subsidy for coffee in 1983 represented 8% of the agricultural budget. In the Gambia, 2% of the agricultural budget is spent on the subsidy, and in the Ivory Coast, 5% is spent. In Zambia, subsidies represented 19% of the agriculture budget in 1984. In India, fertilizer subsidies are estimated to average $55/ metric ton of product.
- ItemFertilizers for Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture(1981-03-12) Donald L. McCuneAgriculture in the tropics and subtropics must become much more efficient and productive if the food, fiber, building materials, and energy needs of developing countries are to be met. Increasing amounts of suitable fertilizers must be physically and economically available to farmers in these areas if their agricultural goals are to be attained. Fertilizers and fertilizer practices that meet the specific needs of the tropics and subtropics must be tailored to the crop, soil, climate, and socioeconomic factors that prevail. With ever-increasing costs of raw materials, processing, and transportation, more attention must be given to the increased efficiency and recovery of applied nutrients. The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) was created in 1974 to develop new and improved fertilizers and fertilizer practices for developing countries with particular emphasis on tropical and subtropical agriculture. Nitrogen studies have focused on more efficient use of urea because urea is the primary nitrogen fertilizer available to farmers in developing countries and often the only one. The efficiency of urea can be improved through deep placement in the soil, coating of urea granules to control the urea release rate, split applications, and improved management practices. Overall nitrogen efficiency can be enhanced by supplementing chemical nitrogen fertilizers with biological nitrogen fixation, recycling organic matter, including green manures, and adequately balancing nutrients. Phosphorus deficiencies can be overcome by directly applying phosphate rock under certain conditions, using partially acidulated phosphate rock, and using thermophosphate in some tropical regions. Greater use of indigenous resources must be encouraged. Additional attention must be given to overcoming severe sulfur deficiencies and providing a balance of nutrients through improved products and practices. More emphasis must be placed on identifying and correcting secondary elements and micronutrient deficiencies in tropical agriculture. The fertilizer industry cannot serve tropical agriculture effectively by supplying primary nutrients only.
- ItemGhana Fertilizer Value Chain Optimization Study(IFDC, 2019-08)The following Fertilizer Value Chain Optimization Study was commissioned by the Government of Ghana (GoG), represented by the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) under the GoG's Ghana Fertilizer Expansion Programme (GFEP). This study includes extensive data and a thorough analysis of cost buildups, blending, and subsidies for fertilizer in Ghana. It provides guidance on how these and other aspects of the fertilizer value chain could be optimized to greatly expand the availability and use of appropriate and affordable fertilizers across the country, particularly by smallholders for food crops, which is the purpose of the MoFA fertilizer subsidy program (FSP). However, it is important to understand the current international and regional fertilizer context to analyze and recommend proper changes to the Ghana fertilizer value chain. The first aspect to understand is that, in general, international free-on-board (FOB) prices were rising (+10-30% year-to-year increase for feedstock, +18% for NPK 15-15-15) at the time of data collection for this study in September 2018, and 2019 prices were affected. There has been a boon in developing manufacturing and blending capacity across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly in West Africa. An additional 4.7 million metric tons (mt) or more of (granular) urea will be available soon from Nigeria; the majority will be exported, primarily outside the continent. Ghana enjoys competitive open market prices but has the highest fertilizer subsidy rate (50%) in West Africa, which has created incentives for smuggling to neighbouring countries, where prices are generally higher and subsidy rates are lower. Regarding the Ghanaian market, 2017 apparent consumption was estimated at 440,000 mt, a record high. However, in 2017 real consumption was much lower at approximately 350,000- 380,000 mt. Official exports are minimal, but much anecdotal evidence supports claims of large-scale smuggling of subsidized fertilizer from Ghana to neighbouring countries, especially Burkina Faso, and substantial carryover stocks. Half of the imports are NPK fertilizers, mainly compounds, and 20% are urea and raw materials for blending. The GoG Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) Program/MoFA FSP and the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) control 80% of the fertilizer market to serve smallholder farmers cultivating crops/vegetables and cocoa, respectively. The Ghanaian market is mainly served by ten most well-skilled and financially capable private importers who blend and distribute through a dense network of 3,500 small, licensed agro-dealers. Regarding fertilizer cost buildup and procurement processes in Ghana, almost all fertilizers are imported through the Port of Tema, where the main importers, largest warehouses, and most blending units are located. No duties or value-added taxes (VAT) are levied on fertilizers, except for a 5% duty on compounds. Urea arriving at the Port of Tema at a free-on-board (FOB) price of U.S. $280/mt reaches Greater Accra (GA) warehouses at U.S. $395/mt bagged, a port cost of U.S. $115/mt, or +41%. This is comparable to port costs at Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and cheaper than those for Mombasa. Domestic distribution costs add 40-45% to free-on-truck (FOT) costs for imported and locally blended fertilizers. Financial costs are 38% on average and operational costs are 42%, accounting for 80% of the cost from Greater Accra storage to retail. Analysis shows that FOB price increases of raw materials increase the competitiveness of local blends over imported compounds. Investing in general (roads and railways) and dedicated infrastructure (priority berths and warehouses), and fast-tracking import procedures (permits, etc.) would ensure reduced in-country costs for fertilizers. In developing the fertilizer (blending) market, depending on which model is used, the total potential in the next five years ranges between 500,000 and 760,000 mt unless the sector is enhanced by major policy and technical improvements. Regardless, blends are expected to represent 50-60% of the total market. Ongoing GoG efforts, including accurate soil maps, trials, fertilizer formulations and recommendations validation, have yielded results that can lead to more suitable crop- and soil-specific blends. This is the first step toward fully balanced crop nutrition, which requires the inclusion of micronutrients. The 2019 PFJ introduced eight new blends for maize, rice, soybean, and cassava to be mostly blended locally. Six blending units, all located in Tema except one (GloFert), were expected to be in operation by the beginning of the 2019 planting season. All can blend new formulations in small or large batches. The installed capacity can easily serve Ghana's current, short-, and at least medium-term market requirements. If the market moves toward more balanced fertilization requiring more complex crop and soil-specific formulations, a couple of additional small blending units, requiring small investments, could have a comparative advantage if located closer to crop production belts (e.g., Brong-Ahafo and Northern regions). However, improvements in fertilizer recommendations and the increase in blended products will have little impact on smallholder farmers growing food crops unless there are major changes to improve the effectiveness of the PFJ/MoFA FSP. As noted above, its 50% subsidy is by far the highest among neighbouring countries, and indications are that many smallholder farmers are either unable to access or unable or unwilling to pay the remaining cost for subsidized fertilizer. Problems with the administration of the 2015-2018 FSPs included late solicitations, contracts, and payments to suppliers and deliveries to farmers, poor productivity/results from commodity standard formula fertilizers, smuggling, limited and inefficient/ineffective use of the private sector suppliers, difficult GoG requirements for accessing subsidized fertilizers, poor accounting/voucher/coupons systems, and fake coupons. Some of these problems were reduced in the 2019 FSP, but comprehensive changes are required if the next FSP is to be more successful. The following actions are recommended to optimize the fertilizer value chain in Ghana. Almost half the retail fertilizer prices are derived from high, in-country costs, primarily due to the lack of priority given to fertilizer imports and poor port and transportation infrastructure. Reasonable priorities and targeted investments in infrastructure important to fertilizer importation, blending, and local deliveries would lower retail prices. This could start with improving capacity at the ports for fertilizer berthing and unloading and improving roads or rail to warehouses and blending operations. Blending capacity in Ghana is already more than twice what is required, and current blending operations are operating at only 20- 25% of capacity. Therefore, the expansion of blending capacity is unnecessary. Doing so would inevitably drive local operations out of business, deterring other blenders and eliminating employment for hundreds of Ghanaian workers. The issues with the current MoFA FSP could be eliminated by modifying it to adhere to the validated Regional Fertilizer Subsidy Program Guide, which will soon be issued by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as a directive. The Guide is built on 13 key principles, including inclusive participation, specialization, fair competition, efficiency, better targeting, transparency, timeliness, appropriate and quality products, incentives, complementary inputs, exit strategy, sustainability, and accountability, with 36 associated activities. Adhering to these principles and combining them with the associated activities would make the Ghana FSP a "smart" program that effectively accomplishes its purpose – improving the availability and use of fertilizers by smallholder farmers in Ghana to ensure greater productivity and food security.
- ItemPreliminary Evaluation of the Feasibility of Using Geospatial Information to Refine Soil Fertility recommendations(2015-06) Bindraban, Prem S.; Kempen Bas; Vereijken, P.F.G.; Keizer, L.P.C.; María Ruipérez González; Wendt JohnIFDC carries out fertilizer field trials at hundreds of (georeferenced) locations throughout eastern and southern African countries. Yield data analyses from these trials typically focus on average yield responses and economic returns of specific fertilizer treatments with respect to control treatments. However, a deeper analysis of yield data might generate information about the spatial pattern of the response and provide insight in factors that cause differences in yield responses. These insights might be taken into account to make future fertilizer targeting more location or region- specific, as an alternative to blanket recommendations. The information may also be valuable for fertilizer companies and other actors in the chain at regional scale where to sell which fertilizer composition. The objective of this exploratory study was to gain insight into factors that cause differences in fertilizer response. which might aid in tailoring fertilizer recommendations to local or regional conditions. This is done through (1) a linear mixed model analysis of fertilizer field trial data using spatial soil and climatic data as covariates and (2) an exploratory geostatistical analysis of soil and fertilizer field trial data. The latter included the development of digital soil maps for eleven soil fertility parameters with random forest modeling and kriging. Soil and crop yield data for Burundi were used for these purposes. The results of the modeling exercises indicate that there is a general lack of correlation between soil type and climatic variables and yield. Based on these results, recommendations may not to be refined for Burundi, indicating that fertilizer formulations used in the omission trials may be valid throughout the study zone. The soil nutrient maps do not appear to be indicative of crop nutrient response, but are indicative of nutrient deficiencies that might be anticipated. We note, however, that eliminations of mistakes in the current datasets and used of more spatially and temporally synchronized covariate data would add value to the analysis. These findings may also prove different over more variable environments such as Rwanda, where soils are considerably more variable. The added value of geospatial analysis for improving fertilizer recommendations is not immediately evident from these exploratory analyses but the results and the lessons leamt can be used to scope a more robust and thorough strategy for further geospatial data gathering and analyses of fertilizer response trials and for anticipating required nutrient composition of fertilizers.
- ItemThe Quality of Fertilizer Traded in West Africa: Evidence for Stronger Control(2013-03) Austin, E. Rick ; Peter Heffernan; John Allgood; Amit H. Roy; Emmanuel Alognikou; Georges Dimithe; Joaquin SanabriaThe Commissions of the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS) and the West Africa Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) are developing a regional legal framework for controlling the quality of fertilizer traded in West Africa. The main purpose of this framework is to safeguard the interests of farmers against nutrient deficiencies, adulteration, misleading claims and short weight as well as to contribute to the creation of an enabling environment for private sector investment in the fertilizer industry. To determine the basis for assessing the effectiveness of this framework when it is implemented, the ECOWAS and UEMOA Commissions initiated, through the Marketing Inputs Regionally (MIR) Plus project, a study to assess the quality of fertilizer traded in West Africa as well as factors influencing fertilizer quality. The study was carried out by trained inspectors from the national fertilizer regulatory services in five West African countries – Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo. The sampling methodology consisted of two steps. The first step focused on obtaining a random sample of 5 to 10 percent of fertilizer dealers in each country either from maps (Ghana and Nigeria) geo-referencing the location of each dealer or with lists of dealers available at the ministry of agriculture (Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Togo). The second step was the collection of random samples of fertilizers from each of the dealers selected in the first step. Fertilizer sampling and collection was done following an agreed-upon protocol. In addition, pretested questionnaires were used to record conditions of storage, physical attributes of fertilizers and characteristics of markets and dealers. A total of 2,028 fertilizer samples was collected from the 827 wholesalers, government depots and retailers of various sizes in the five countries. The distribution of these fertilizer samples is a good representation of the relative importance of the different fertilizer products in the five countries. Urea and the NPK 15:15:15 blend were the only products collected from each of the five countries. Urea, the compound NPK 15:15:15, the compound NPK 16:16:16, the compound NPK 23:10:5, the blend NPK 15:15:15 and ammonium sulfate (AS) account for 79 percent of the samples collected. The chemical analyses of the fertilizer samples focused on determining the content of primary plant nutrients (total nitrogen, available phosphorus and soluble potassium). However, few samples were considered for determination of secondary nutrients (calcium [Ca], magnesium [Mg] and sulfur [S]). Statistical analyses were applied to data on nutrient contents, physical attributes and characteristics of markets, dealers and storage conditions to determine the quality of the different fertilizer products and to associate fertilizer quality with market and dealer characteristics. To be meaningful, the nutrient content compliance was analyzed statistically only for the fertilizer products with at least 23 samples and these accounted for 93 percent of all the samples collected in the study. Nutrient content compliance was assessed based on newly adopted ECOWAS standards. Blends and Compounds Present Cases of Poor Quality, but This is Most Severe for Blends The chemical analyses carried out show that NPK fertilizers manufactured through blending present the most frequent and severe cases of poor quality compared with compound products. More specifically, 51 percent of the 106 samples of the 15:15:15 blend were out of compliance with respect to newly adopted ECOWAS tolerance limits for nutrient content deviations. Similarly, 86 percent of the 90 samples of the blended 20:10:10, 12 percent of the 30 samples of the blended 6:20:10, 96 percent of the 27 samples of the blended 15:10:10, 31 percent of the 23 samples of Asaase Wura (0:22:18+9CaO+7S+5MgO) and 26 percent of the 27 samples of Cocoa Feed (0:30:20) failed to meet the ECOWAS quality standards. In contrast, compared with blended products, only 4 percent of the 534 samples of urea, 10 percent of the 356 samples of the compound 15:15:15, 16 percent of the 162 samples of AS (21:0:0+24S), 15 percent of the 162 samples of compound 16:16:16, 1 percent of the 103 samples of compound 23:10:5 and 4 percent of the 90 samples of Sulfan (24:0:0+6S) failed to meet the ECOWAS quality standards. While the proportions of non-compliant samples observed in the compound products is lower than the ones observed in blended products, these can still be considered high for imported products. This result confirms the finding of a previous assessment carried out in 1995 indicating that 10 of the 29 samples of NPK compounds examined were nutrient-deficient. Of the 10 samples of single superphosphate (SSP) collected from several locations in Nigeria, seven of them were found to contain no P2 O5 but contained mainly quartz (SiO2 ). The chemical and X-ray mineralogical analyses indicate that the samples with no phosphorus come from spurious materials without fertilizer characteristics that are commercialized as SSP. Country-to-Country Comparisons Show Variable Product Quality Country-to-country comparisons made between Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo for the blended 15:15:15 and between Ghana, Nigeria and Togo for the compound 15:15:15 show a great deal of variability between countries. The overall out-of-nutrient content compliance for the blended 15:15:15 was the highest in Côte d’Ivoire (87 percent), followed by Ghana (42 percent) and Togo (6 percent). For the compound 15:15:15, the overall out-of-nutrient content compliance was highest in Nigeria (16 percent), followed by Ghana (10 percent) and Togo (3 percent). The low proportion of non-compliant samples observed in Togo may be attributed to the fact that, of the three countries, Togo might be expected to have low variability in the importation sources and a relative simple distribution chain due to government control of importation and distribution. Nutrient Deficiencies in Blended Products are Not Simply an Issue of Segregation The analysis indicated that the main reason for nutrient content deficiencies in Asaase Wura is the uneven distribution of nutrients in the fertilizer bags caused by granule segregation. Nutrient content deficiencies are also attributed to segregation of the fertilizer components used in the bulk blend for half of the 15:15:15, two-thirds of the Cocoa Feed and one-third of the 6:20:10 blend samples. These results suggest that the high proportion of nutrient-deficient cases found in these products can be avoided using fertilizers of uniform granule size for the manufacture of these blends and utilizing appropriate equipment and procedures to make the blends. The effect of segregation in the NPK blends 15:10:10 and 20:10:10 which have the highest proportion of non-compliant samples is found to be minimal. This indicates that the lack of nutrient compliance in these products is mainly explained by insufficient nutrient input in the blend manufacture. Evidence of Adulterated Products in the Collected Samples is Weak Trained inspectors reported evidence of adulteration in 31 of 134 (23 percent) samples from Côte d’Ivoire but only 14 of 414 (3.4 percent) samples from Nigeria. However, the only cases of completely proven adulteration are the seven samples of SSP from Nigeria that were found to have no P2 O5 content nor any of the minerals that carry P in phosphate rock. Short Weight Fertilizer Bags are Common in the Market An analysis of the weight of 1,055 fertilizer bags collected from all five countries indicates that there is a 41 percent chance that the bag weight does not comply with the ECOWAS tolerance limit in Nigeria, a 28 percent chance for this to occur in Côte d’Ivoire, 13 percent in Senegal, 12 percent in Ghana and 7 percent in Togo. The two probable reasons for underweight bags are poor process control or deliberate acts of underweighting. Market Characteristics are Associated with the Quality of Products Statistically significant association between market characteristics and fertilizer quality categories (good or bad) was found only for 15:15:15 blends when samples from all countries were combined. This was probably because, under this scenario (aggregating samples), there is enough variability in the samples collected between the two categories “Bad” and “Good” for this particular product. The rural markets are associated with significantly higher percentage (87.5 percent) of Good quality fertilizer than the urban markets (56.5 percent). Statistical analysis results also showed that permanent markets tend to have a significantly higher percentage of Good quality of the 15:15:15 blends than periodic markets. Similarly, markets with high concentration of agro-dealers tend to have a significantly higher percentage of Good quality products than isolated agro-dealers. When data was analyzed by country, the pattern of the associations between market characteristics and fertilizer quality differed from the identified when the aggregated data from the five countries was analyzed. This was either because some associations could not be evaluated due to insufficient sample size or because of insufficient quality variability within fertilizers with appropriate sample size. With country-level analysis, statistically significant association between market characteristics and fertilizer quality categories (good or bad) was found only for the 15:15:15 blend in Ghana and for the 15:15:15 compound in Nigeria. In Nigeria, the urban markets showed significantly higher frequency of good quality than the rural markets. In Ghana, the permanent markets, and the dealers that sell mainly to large scale farmers presented significantly higher frequency of good quality than temporary markets and dealers that sell mainly to small scale farmers, respectively. Licensing and Knowledge of Fertilizers Matter Statistical analysis performed on 106 samples of the blended 15:15:15 and agro-dealer characteristics reveals that agro-dealers with “good knowledge about fertilizers” are more likely to sell a higher percentage of Good quality products than the others. Similarly, analyses carried out with the 624 samples of 15:15:15 blends, 15:15:15 compounds and 16:16:16 compounds show that the agro-dealers with a license for selling fertilizer are more likely to sell a higher percentage of Good quality fertilizers than nonlicensed ones. In addition, the analysis also indicates that the agro-dealers that predominantly sell fertilizer to large-scale farmers are more likely to sell a higher percentage of Good quality products than the agro-dealers who sell fertilizer mainly to small-scale farmers. Wholesalers have a significantly higher percentage of Good quality fertilizers than retailers. Physical Attributes of Fertilizers are Associated with Product Quality as Well The qualitative assessment of granule integrity (presence of fine particles and dust) indicated that all the blended fertilizers had at least 50 percent of the samples classified at medium- or high-level categories for the presence of fine particles. The 15:10:10 blend also had 80 percent of dust presence at the high category. Among the compound fertilizers, 16:16:16, 15:15:15, 23:10:5 and Sulfan also presented more than 50 percent of the samples classified in the categories of Medium and High for presence of fine particles. Paradoxically, granule integrity was found poorer for compound 15:15:15 than for the blended 15:15:15. Unfortunately, this lack of granular integrity has a negative impact on the fertilizer’s quality. The observed frequent and severe granule degradation identified can be attributed to excessive manipulation of the fertilizer bags associated with their manual and individual handling. There is also a clear tendency of complex distribution chains (Nigeria and Ghana) to present higher frequency and severity of granular degradation than simple distribution chains (Togo). As expected, the study found a strong correlation between high moisture levels and high caking levels, for both the blended fertilizers and the compound fertilizers. The importance of appropriate bagging was underscored by findings in Senegal where 41 percent of the bags were found to be outer woven without plastic inner lining, and 61 percent of the samples presented medium to high degrees of urea caking. Low frequency of caking in urea was closely associated with use of laminated bags or bags with plastic lining in Ghana, Nigeria, and Togo. Among the physical attributes of fertilizer considered in the study, the moisture content and the segregation showed significant relationships with nutrient content quality only in the 15:15:15 blend. Effective Implementation of the Adopted ECOWAS Fertilizer Regulatory System is Critical The study results clearly suggest that effectively implementing the adopted ECOWAS fertilizer regulatory system is likely to ensure that products supplied to the market meet high quality standards. The system calls for licensing of agro-dealers as well as inspection, sampling and analysis of fertilizers at importation points and along the distribution chain. Addressing the Quality Challenges of the Blends is Needed The fact that blends show the most frequent and severe cases of poor quality suggests that it is imperative to identify the origin of their quality problems and to propose appropriate solutions. In addition, there is a clear need to enhance the manufacturing knowledge and equipment for manufacturing blends. Building the Capacity of Agro-Dealers is Necessary The study results equally suggest the need to train distributors on the appropriate storage and handling of fertilizer products, as well as their physical and chemical properties. Doing so will contribute to reducing the effect of physical attributes of fertilizer on product quality.