IFDC Report, Volume 23, No. 2
Abstract
This report highlights the significance of seasonal climate variability on human development, emphasizing the historical success of societies in adapting to climatic conditions. While extreme events often dominate public attention, the subtler consequences of climate variability can have substantial economic impacts. The lack of effective risk management policies can be attributed to inadequate means of predicting climate conditions with sufficient skill and lead time. However, recent advancements in forecasting climate anomalies associated with the El NiƱo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are transforming the landscape in certain regions. This report explores the implications of improved forecasting abilities, particularly in predicting sea surface temperatures in the ENSO region 3-6 months in advance. These forecasts enable scientists to develop climate outlooks for one to two seasons ahead. The agricultural sector benefits significantly from these outlooks, as they facilitate the adaptation of production systems to minimize losses under expected unfavourable conditions and maximize benefits during anticipated favourable conditions. This report explores the implications of improved forecasting abilities, particularly in predicting sea surface temperatures in the ENSO region 3-6 months in advance. These forecasts enable scientists to develop climate outlooks for one to two seasons ahead. The agricultural sector benefits significantly from these outlooks, as they facilitate the adaptation of production systems to minimize losses under expected unfavourable conditions and maximize benefits during anticipated favourable conditions.
Description
Keywords
Climate change, Production systems